Landslide Predictions

Here is the predicted McCain Landslide. My guess 18 hours out? The election will end decisively by 11pm PST.  360 – 178. Obama clearly victorious taking out most Republican Congressional seats. Why? The party never atoned for Bush. Instead the Winking Wonderwoman from Wasilla grandstanded Bush values without apology.

Obama wins through superior organization, sensationally effective use of the Internet, the lack of Presidential support for McCain, a decisive end to the war in Iraq, and standing hard on Barack issues.  His superior finance was drawn from the electorate with a risk, but loud message – no lobbyist influence. Barack earned his war chest. McCain drained his from petro-donors and pharma-dollars. Barack thinks as we – enough is Enough!

Two good voting tools. The statistically correct 538 with background here. The interactive LATimes. Mine is 360 – 178. What’s yours?

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Hot Water Heater Ready to Explode? Call Joe

From my email inbox:

<rant>The truth on Joe the “Plumber” comes out on Bloomberg

  1. He’s not a registered plumber. 
  2. Joe is a tax dodger and owes back taxes in his state of Ohio. 
  3. The “plumbing” business that Joe wants to buy is extremely unlikely to earn enough profit for Joe to actually pay more tax under Obama’s plan.  And even if he DID make $280K profit then he’d pay something like $700 more a year, which is half of what he currently owes Ohio in back taxes.  Even then, it remains to be seen whether he’d pay the extra taxes, as his history suggests he’s a tax dodger.

Joe is typical of the short term ME-ME approach embodied by Republicans today.  Joe has been successful precisely because of progressive tax policies that favor the middle class (which he used to be in).  He is able to buy the business because of leaders like Clinton (and Obama) that understand that wealth of all of us (including those at the top) is positively impacted by the wealth of the majority.  Trickle UP economics is what works! 

Ohio will probably be interested to find out that Joe isn’t paying taxes at the same time as he’s considering buying a business.  Time to raid Joe’s house and take a peek under the mattress, or in the hot water tank, or wherever it is that “plumbers” keep their money. </rant>

In the worst case,  Joe benefits from Obama. According to tax analysts, if Mr. Wurzelbacher’s gross business receipts were $250,000, then he would NOT have to pay higher taxes under Mr. Obama’s plan. Joe is actually eligble for a tax cut. More at the NYT

Let’s hope Joe is a better plumber than a financial decoy for the GOP, because that hot water heater is ready to blow.

By the way, rant, it turns out Joe’s voter registration name is misspelled so his ballot may be put in the contested stack and not actually counted for the election.

<rant>That’s great!  All we need now is for Joe the plumber to actually get educated about these  evil “liberal” plans and realize that he’ll actually be better off because Obama’s tax hike won’t affect him, AND he’ll get a tax credit so he can give him employees healthcare which I’m SURE he truly wants to do, as he’s such a patriot n’ all.  

Remember, cutting taxes means debt, so debt is wealth, and wealth is patriotic.  So cutting taxes is patriotic!
</rant> 

Then what about Joe the Solar Guy? But Republican anger is real, as Joe the Reporter, kicked to the ground by a Palin supporter.

Update Oct 21 — Paul Krugman’s look at Real Plumbers in Ohio, stating the average joe plumber does not even make $50,000. How about a short Barrack ad standing with 50 average plumbers in Ohio called Joe. Who is this “Joe the Plumber?” I hear Michael Moore has already organized plumbers to do the right thing – free or very low cost fixes as their election message. In the end, Joe the Plumber is full of crap.

Obama in October

29 days left on the old Bush clock. Halloween approaches. The all-seeing always-linking Andrew Sullivan spots an Obaman act of goodness as Autumnal days get darker.

Hyper-Halloween heats up with both parties now. The fear meter tips more to the right as the Republicans haunt the American imagination with the “white flag”, “terrorists pal” and the other ilk of character assassination pressed by, I will call it, “Neandrican” leadership.

The Bush clock ticks and the Neandrican “October Surprise” is being wound up tighetr than a Jack-in-the-box. Ready to pop out for capture is Bin Laden previewed on 60 minutes. Cromagnocrats stay frosty.  Be advised.

The skilled Cromagnocrat can seize the winning strategy against Al Qaeda, whereas the Neandrican is unable to let go. Monkeys are caught when they reach into an anchored gourd filled with shiny coins. When the hunter charges, the animal will not unclench his fist to run away. “Must surge now.”

The trick or treat election is on everyone’s mind. Rolling Stone opens the bag on Make-Believe Maverick and brother Matt Taibbi’s Mad Dog Palin.

Stirring the pot of hatred, the polarizing Republican rally to kill, baby kill. I am now hearing people use “Alaska!” as an expletive, as in “Alaska! don’t make me come over there.”, or “Alaska! Whose calling me now?”

Pales By Comparison

Wait, let’s see that VP debate transcript. Did Sarah Palin really say the Taliban are working with us in Iraq? No it was Maliki and Talabani, ok, no gaffe. But with the many slips in her speaking, you never knew if she knew what she was talking about, as was clear in the Couric interview. As Kathleen Parker puts it

“Before we relax into giddiness or cynicism, however, it’s important to consider that a debate differs from an interview in significant ways. A debate is a point-counterpoint exercise that allows little opportunity for probing or follow-up. An interview requires that a candidate explain an idea in depth and offer specifics.”

Amid the betcha’s and eye wink connectives, Palin largely followed Biden’s topical lead, even though she had many opportunities to coherently advance the subject or even once seize the first response to the moderator. When confronted or perhaps not understanding difficult questions, she took the conversation into oddly irrelevant areas to what the audience was focusing on and waiting for her counter punch. For example when Gwen asked about policy on mortgage and bankruptcy, Joe gave a perfectly fine answer. Sarah’s turn. “I want to talk about, again, my record on energy policy”. For the audience, an unsatisfying comeback and repeating herself again already.
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Feeling American, Acting

So how did you feel after watching the two parties nominating conventions? The Republicans still angry and divisive while the Democrat hopeful and unifying. I listened randomly to the Republican address by Carla Fiorina (former HP CEO), coated with metaphors of victories, division, war, and glory in the now so typical Republican harsh and mean-spirited voice. Like many Republican orators they shout commands and divide out those who follow orders without question – the rest of you go hunker down in that fear bunker. The convention difference is that of being told to get in line, rather than feeling lifted in an atmosphere of possibility for a country. Megaphone vs any other point of view. 

It is hilarious to see the party in power running as it if weren’t. Or put another way, to hear about Mavericks of change running against an independent thinker dedicated to change. For the last two years. If change from Bush is the issue, why is the party of Bush so intent on remaking itself? It means they have no principle of cohesion or conviction in their original ideas that require correction. The RNC convention co-opts the entire Obama platform of change.  It is scary how few American see through their intent.  We need real change to clean up the mess we made. That would be honest.

The Republicans operate their well-worn traditions of Character Assassination and the Megaphone Hour. Guilliani’s attack on Obama, twisted stories, the divisive cut to the audience. Be proud to be an R, distinct from any else, you know, those (us?) non-Americans. The pulpit intent is to make you feel like a sinner. No one listening is courageous enough to detect that every speaker has a truth problem.

Be advised.

The Republican Party alarms you. Emergency is the code to keep power. Brilliant humor from Jon Stewart who lifts the masked messaging at the RNC.  Underneath, hides the ugly truth told soberly with Frank Rich‘s write up.

Two Mavericks

 TWO MAVERICKS 

EXT. FARM PASTURE - DAY

MAVERICK, the old horse stands in a pasture, inspired by open sky. 

      MAVERICK
      No, I am a Maverick, because I challenge the herd. I bring change.

MAVERESS, a young sexy horse saunters into frame, nuzzling up to
Maverick.

      MAVERESS
      I am a Maverick too. Talk about change.

Voice over as Maverick nervously tries to create a little space. 

      VOICE OVER
      Can't there be one Maverick? Is the party that presents two
Mavericks trying to say something about change? Is it to change the
government they have badly run for the last eight years?

FADEIN of OBAMA CAMPAIGN LOGO

     VOICE OVER (CONT'D)
     Let's quit horsing around.  Who has said we need real change
before there were Mavericks? Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Real change for all the people.